EURO 2004 proposition bet

soccerbob · May 9, 2004

I just saw a total for the number of draws at EURO 2004 at 9 1/2 and at first glance, that seemed pretty high to me. After doing a bit of research and looking at the way the groups are set, now that total looks way too high. There were only six draws at EURO 2000 and I feel that's just about where this total should be.

There will be 32 matches played. 24 in the group stage and 8 in the quarters, semis, third place and the final. There are several squads in this tournament that will be hard pressed to score a goal, much less take any points from much stonger teams in the group stage. The under here looks really strong. Even if there are more draws than I think there will be and the total gets anywhere near that 9 1/2, you can always play the draw in select matches as a hedge where you would be taking a nice plus if you had to get off the original play.

SteamTeam · May 9, 2004

nice observation, thanks

Brazil4Worldcup2002 · May 9, 2004

Seems good 'prima facie'

The only thing that worries me is that the first game, most teams play very cautiously and you could be off to a bad start (then hopefully pick up later on the in tournament when Spain thrashes everybody).

JackDee · May 9, 2004

i like your rationale a lot bob, what book is the total draw line from? It seems that the linemaker did some rough calculations of previous euros and world cups, possibly correlated it with the draw percentages in friendlies or europian cups such as uefa and cl, and with that rough 1/3 estimate, divided the games and got the line. A few minor details worry me though with the under:

a. the players will be exhausted from yet another long season with their teams, and exhaustion levels things up in terms of the favourites and dogs, hence slightly higher chances for a draw.
b. the players that will have the highest motivation to play at top notch level will be the lesser known ones, and these belong to the weaker national teams, and that might level things up too.

But, i haven't looked at the groupings at all so this are pretty much uninformed points, but i will have a look at them as well as how draws fare in euros historically and get back to you.

bol. jack.

soccerbob · May 10, 2004

Jack- That prop is up at Pinnacle.

A2345- I found your comment about Spain very interesting because the second prop that I felt was a very strong play is also at Pinnacle. They have Spain at a -250 to qualify from their group. Spain is grouped with Portugal, Greece and Russia. The top two teams in each of the four groups move into the knockout stage. I would certainly think that Spain and Portugal would have to be huge favorites to move through to the next round.

Brazil4Worldcup2002 · May 10, 2004

Spain are classic underachievers. They had a great run in WorldCup 2002 but South Korea 'beat them', very controversially i might add. I think it will be their time to represent.
I can see them alongside two other teams that may win it (England and Portugal).

Raul and Morientes!!

JackDee · May 10, 2004

well, greece don't stand a chance for sure to qualify, they might, i hope they will, put some good effort in, but it won't be enough, same thing for russia. At 1.4 for spain to qualify, not as group leaders, but merely to qualify, considering their quality, fan support, and the hosts' assets from their neighbour country as well as multi billion ad funds is a gift.

matahari · May 10, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> well, greece don't stand a chance for sure to qualify, they might, i hope they will, put some good effort in, but it won't be enough, same thing for russia. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

You're too skeptical of your home team, Jack. I'd give them the same chances as the grossly overrated local team.

Mr NJ Sports · May 10, 2004

I think France is winning this thing. Arsenal will look to continue their great season

I root for Italy but the fact that they never attack ever is annoying.

miamiman · May 11, 2004

grecce, -they will be a tough team to overcome, look at the group they qualified from and how they got on.

Spain never start to quick in these tournaments and they might get caught out here. No bet one way or the other.

Number of draws in this tournament - well remember a high propartion of favs won in the last euro, the sportsbooks got a good beaten,. The number is about right what piny has , not for me but anyone betting it should go back over the last 4 euro's to see how it panned out

JackDee · May 11, 2004

"You're too skeptical of your home team, Jack. I'd give them the same chances as the grossly overrated local team."

I disagree, i ve followed my home team extensively the past two years and you could say i know them inside out. Despite perhaps the obvious bias, either positive or negative, for a side you have some emotional attachment too, i am very sure that greece stand a lot of chances to be a tough team to crack, but they will crack and not qualify, and they might to do so spectacularly even(as witnessed a few weeks ago with the 4-0 friendly loss to holland). For a very many reasons ranging from the players quality, to their condition and fitness at the time of the games, to some of the inate greek football traits etc. etc. (it would take me pages to explain my rationale.) I consider spain the favourite of the group, by far, with portugal next, then russia and a close fourth greece. I can't see spain not going through based on their team strength compared to their opponents, and i can't see portugal not getting enough of the officials' support to not go through, thus i see this group as pretty much locked in terms of qualifications.

Then again, i do have a fervent hope that greece put up a decent performance in this euro, and this hope always undermines my rationality in terms of the favourites here, and that's why i might not end up betting spain. Wish i was more level headed in such desicions.